tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Charleston via Washington: arrives on time 27%

  1. 12:50 MSP → 16:27 DCA
    AA 3796 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 37m · 70% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:22 DCA → 19:07 CHS
    AA 1654 · American · 1h 49m · 53% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 21m, scheduled departure to arrival (Charleston is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 21 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time27%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip5h 21mMSP 12:50 to CHS 19:07, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.