tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Wilmington → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 41%

  1. 13:21 ILM → 14:58 ORD
    AA 3811 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 37m · 87% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 38m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 ORD → 21:00 EWR
    AA 3253 · American · 2h 24m · 47% on time, 6.8% cancelled

Total trip 7h 39m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 113 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 38m layover.
Arrives on time41%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (6.8% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip7h 39mILM 13:21 to EWR 21:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.