tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Dallas-Fort Worth via Chicago: arrives on time 31%

  1. 14:32 STL → 15:59 ORD
    AA 3815 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 28m · 76% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:51 ORD → 19:28 DFW
    AA 2988 · American · 2h 37m · 46% on time, 3.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 51 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (3.4% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip4h 56mSTL 14:32 to DFW 19:28, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.