tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tampa → Los Angeles via Nashville: arrives on time 34%

  1. 16:55 TPA → 17:59 BNA
    AA 3823 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 04m · 66% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Nashville (BNA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:50 BNA → 21:15 LAX
    AA 2123 · American · 4h 25m · 59% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 20m, scheduled departure to arrival (Los Angeles is 3 h behind Tampa). Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection59%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 41% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time34%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (59%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip7h 20mTPA 16:55 to LAX 21:15, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.