tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → New York via Washington: arrives on time 67%

  1. 07:00 XNA → 10:39 DCA
    AA 3824 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 39m · 93% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:40 DCA → 13:08 LGA
    AA 4645 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 24m · 75% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 47 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time67%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (75%).
Total trip5h 04mXNA 07:00 to LGA 13:08, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.