tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → New York via Washington: arrives on time 57%

  1. 07:00 XNA → 10:39 DCA
    AA 3824 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 39m · 93% on time, 0.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 20m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:59 DCA → 15:35 LGA
    AA 4730 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 34m · 62% on time, 6.5% cancelled

Total trip 7h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 155 minutes late on <1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 20m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (0.8% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (6.5% are) and within 15 minutes (62%).
Total trip7h 33mXNA 07:00 to LGA 15:35, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.