Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026
Tulsa → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 30%
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19:35 TUL → 21:44 ORDAA 3827 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 11m · 74% on time, 8.3% cancelled
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50m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
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22:34 ORD → 00:14 PHX +1 dayAA 2786 · American · 3h 39m · 55% on time, 11.1% cancelled
Total trip 6h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.
Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip6h 38mTUL 19:35 to PHX 00:14, layover included
Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.
Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.