tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tulsa → Seattle via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 28%

  1. 20:20 TUL → 21:44 DFW
    AA 3830 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 24m · 70% on time, 8.0% cancelled
  2. 57m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:41 DFW → 00:57 SEA +1 day
    AA 1487 · American · 4h 16m · 47% on time, 6.2% cancelled

Total trip 6h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Seattle is 2 h behind Tulsa). Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection68%The first flight arrived more than 12 minutes late on 32% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 57m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (8.0% are) × connection made (68%) × second flight not cancelled (6.2% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip6h 37mTUL 20:20 to SEA 00:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.