tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Minneapolis via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 29%

  1. 18:45 XNA → 20:15 DFW
    AA 3837 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 30m · 59% on time, 2.5% cancelled
  2. 1h 15m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:30 DFW → 23:57 MSP
    AA 3149 · American · 2h 27m · 44% on time, 3.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 12m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 26 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 30 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 15m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (2.5% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (3.3% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip5h 12mXNA 18:45 to MSP 23:57, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.