tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 79%

  1. 09:14 XNA → 11:11 ORD
    AA 3839 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 57m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 25m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:36 ORD → 15:20 MSP
    AA 4000 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 43m · 81% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 6h 05m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 100 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 25m layover.
Arrives on time79%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (81%).
Total trip6h 05mXNA 09:14 to MSP 15:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.