tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Denver via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 21%

  1. 20:21 XNA → 21:49 DFW
    AA 3843 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 27m · 63% on time, 5.8% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:45 DFW → 23:55 DEN
    AA 662 · American · 2h 10m · 44% on time, 2.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 34m, scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 1 h behind Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection52%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 48% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time21%First flight not cancelled (5.8% are) × connection made (52%) × second flight not cancelled (2.5% are) and within 15 minutes (44%).
Total trip4h 34mXNA 20:21 to DEN 23:55, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.