tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 35%

  1. 14:12 XNA → 16:14 ORD
    AA 3848 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 01m · 67% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:07 ORD → 20:25 PHL
    AA 1848 · American · 2h 18m · 59% on time, 4.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 13m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Fayetteville/Springdale/). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time35%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (4.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 13mXNA 14:12 to PHL 20:25, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.