tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Houston via Chicago: arrives on time 59%

  1. 05:40 TVC → 05:59 ORD
    AA 3909 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 19m · 94% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 31m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:30 ORD → 10:20 IAH
    AA 1909 · American · 2h 46m · 64% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 5h 36m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Traverse City). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 46 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 31m layover.
Arrives on time59%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip5h 36mTVC 05:40 to IAH 10:20, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.