tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 70%

  1. 05:40 TVC → 05:59 ORD
    AA 3909 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 19m · 94% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 03m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:02 ORD → 10:03 DCA
    AA 2965 · American · 2h 01m · 76% on time, 1.4% cancelled

Total trip 4h 23m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 18 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 03m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (1.4% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 23mTVC 05:40 to DCA 10:03, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.