tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Columbus → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 47%

  1. 13:56 CMH → 14:31 ORD
    AA 3961 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 34m · 78% on time, 4.8% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:22 ORD → 17:05 PHX
    AA 2624 · American · 3h 43m · 70% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Columbus). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection72%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 28% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time47%First flight not cancelled (4.8% are) × connection made (72%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip6h 09mCMH 13:56 to PHX 17:05, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.