tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Philadelphia via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 15:37 BHM → 18:00 ORD
    AA 3971 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 23m · 79% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 48m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:48 ORD → 21:59 PHL
    AA 2443 · American · 2h 18m · 59% on time, 7.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 29m, scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection73%The first flight arrived more than 3 minutes late on 27% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 48m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (73%) × second flight not cancelled (7.3% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 29mBHM 15:37 to PHL 21:59, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.