tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Detroit via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 15:37 BHM → 18:00 ORD
    AA 3971 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 23m · 79% on time, 4.5% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:56 ORD → 21:34 DTW
    AA 4931 · American, flown by SkyWest · 1h 37m · 57% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 56m, scheduled departure to arrival (Detroit is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (4.5% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (57%).
Total trip4h 56mBHM 15:37 to DTW 21:34, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.