tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Chicago via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 42%

  1. 07:13 XNA → 08:45 DFW
    AA 3985 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 32m · 75% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 50m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:35 DFW → 12:14 ORD
    AA 1290 · American · 2h 39m · 69% on time, 4.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 01m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection64%The first flight arrived more than 5 minutes late on 36% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 50m layover.
Arrives on time42%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (64%) × second flight not cancelled (4.1% are) and within 15 minutes (69%).
Total trip5h 01mXNA 07:13 to ORD 12:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.