tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Nashville → Pensacola via Washington: arrives on time 33%

  1. 15:30 BNA → 18:26 DCA
    AA 3991 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 56m · 70% on time, 9.7% cancelled
  2. 55m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:21 DCA → 21:00 PNS
    AA 5544 · American, flown by PSA · 2h 39m · 59% on time, 5.6% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection66%The first flight arrived more than 10 minutes late on 34% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 55m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (9.7% are) × connection made (66%) × second flight not cancelled (5.6% are) and within 15 minutes (59%).
Total trip5h 30mBNA 15:30 to PNS 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.