tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Fayetteville/Springdale/ via Chicago: arrives on time 53%

  1. 15:56 MSP → 17:44 ORD
    AA 4000 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 49m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 16m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 19:00 ORD → 21:00 XNA
    AA 4105 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 00m · 70% on time, 1.3% cancelled

Total trip 5h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection77%The first flight arrived more than 31 minutes late on 23% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 16m layover.
Arrives on time53%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (77%) × second flight not cancelled (1.3% are) and within 15 minutes (70%).
Total trip5h 04mMSP 15:56 to XNA 21:00, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.