tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Fairbanks via Minneapolis: arrives on time 73%

  1. 13:36 ORD → 15:20 MSP
    AA 4000 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 43m · 81% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 2h 50m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 18:10 MSP → 20:43 FAI
    DL 1055 · Delta · 5h 33m · 78% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 10h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Fairbanks is 3 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 36 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 80 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 2h 50m layover.
Arrives on time73%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (78%).
Total trip10h 07mORD 13:36 to FAI 20:43, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.