tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Wilmington → New York via Chicago: arrives on time 28%

  1. 15:31 ILM → 17:11 ORD
    AA 4009 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 39m · 59% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 09m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:20 ORD → 21:36 LGA
    AA 1724 · American · 2h 21m · 49% on time, 12.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 10m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection67%The first flight arrived more than 24 minutes late on 33% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 09m layover.
Arrives on time28%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (67%) × second flight not cancelled (12.5% are) and within 15 minutes (49%).
Total trip6h 10mILM 15:31 to LGA 21:36, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.