tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Wilmington → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 38%

  1. 15:31 ILM → 17:11 ORD
    AA 4009 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 39m · 59% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 58m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:09 ORD → 23:30 EWR
    AA 2549 · American · 2h 21m · 45% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 7h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection92%The first flight arrived more than 133 minutes late on 8% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 58m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (92%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip7h 59mILM 15:31 to EWR 23:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.