tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Wilmington → Miami via Chicago: arrives on time 18%

  1. 15:31 ILM → 17:11 ORD
    AA 4009 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 39m · 59% on time, 1.6% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 18:00 ORD → 22:17 MIA
    AA 2690 · American · 3h 17m · 45% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 6h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection44%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 56% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time18%First flight not cancelled (1.6% are) × connection made (44%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip6h 46mILM 15:31 to MIA 22:17, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.