tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Seattle → Newark via Phoenix: arrives on time 57%

  1. 18:15 SEA → 21:18 PHX
    AA 4035 · American, flown by Envoy · 3h 03m · 73% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:14 PHX → 06:00 EWR +1 day
    AA 2156 · American · 4h 46m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 8h 45m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Seattle). Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip8h 45mSEA 18:15 to EWR 06:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.