tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Madison → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 39%

  1. 15:55 MSN → 17:02 ORD
    AA 4038 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 07m · 41% on time, 3.6% cancelled
  2. 3h 07m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:09 ORD → 23:30 EWR
    AA 2549 · American · 2h 21m · 45% on time, 7.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 35m, scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 1 h ahead of Madison). Times are local. Both flew on 0 of the last 56 days, too few to list among the best connections.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 142 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 07m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (3.6% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (7.0% are) and within 15 minutes (45%).
Total trip6h 35mMSN 15:55 to EWR 23:30, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.