tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Chicago via Miami: arrives on time 70%

  1. 06:00 XNA → 09:47 MIA
    AA 4052 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 47m · 95% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 34m layover in Miami (MIA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 12:21 MIA → 14:57 ORD
    AA 2910 · American · 3h 36m · 73% on time, 2.8% cancelled

Total trip 8h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection99%The first flight arrived more than 109 minutes late on 1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 34m layover.
Arrives on time70%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (99%) × second flight not cancelled (2.8% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip8h 57mXNA 06:00 to ORD 14:57, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.