tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Fayetteville/Springdale/ → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 78%

  1. 05:06 XNA → 07:12 ORD
    AA 4088 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 06m · 86% on time, 1.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 08:22 ORD → 10:06 MSP
    AA 4162 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 46m · 91% on time, 1.5% cancelled

Total trip 5h 02m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 52 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection88%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 12% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (1.0% are) × connection made (88%) × second flight not cancelled (1.5% are) and within 15 minutes (91%).
Total trip5h 02mXNA 05:06 to MSP 10:06, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.