tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hebron → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 66%

  1. 06:00 CVG → 06:32 ORD
    AA 4094 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 32m · 82% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 53m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 07:25 ORD → 09:09 PHX
    AA 769 · American · 3h 44m · 86% on time, 1.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 09m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Hebron). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection79%The first flight arrived more than 8 minutes late on 21% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 53m layover.
Arrives on time66%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (79%) × second flight not cancelled (1.8% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip6h 09mCVG 06:00 to PHX 09:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.