tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Miami via St Louis: arrives on time 90%

  1. 07:05 ORD → 08:31 STL
    AA 4104 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 27m · 96% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 2h 29m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 11:00 STL → 14:46 MIA
    AA 3954 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 46m · 90% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 41m, scheduled departure to arrival (Miami is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 104 minutes late on <1% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 29m layover.
Arrives on time90%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (90%).
Total trip6h 41mORD 07:05 to MIA 14:46, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.