tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → New York via St Louis: arrives on time 78%

  1. 07:05 ORD → 08:31 STL
    AA 4104 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 27m · 96% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in St Louis (STL) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 09:22 STL → 12:56 LGA
    AA 4508 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 34m · 84% on time, 1.9% cancelled

Total trip 4h 51m, scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 1 h ahead of Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 40 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time78%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (1.9% are) and within 15 minutes (84%).
Total trip4h 51mORD 07:05 to LGA 12:56, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.