tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Eugene → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 40%

  1. 13:39 EUG → 16:16 PHX
    AA 4114 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 37m · 84% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:08 PHX → 19:09 SFO
    AA 1613 · American · 2h 01m · 52% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 5h 30m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection78%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 22% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time40%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (78%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (52%).
Total trip5h 30mEUG 13:39 to SFO 19:09, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.