tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tucson → Portland via Phoenix: arrives on time 57%

  1. 18:30 TUS → 19:29 PHX
    AA 4126 · American, flown by Envoy · 59m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 56m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:25 PHX → 23:08 PDX
    AA 561 · American · 2h 43m · 68% on time, 0.7% cancelled

Total trip 4h 38m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection85%The first flight arrived more than 11 minutes late on 15% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 56m layover.
Arrives on time57%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (85%) × second flight not cancelled (0.7% are) and within 15 minutes (68%).
Total trip4h 38mTUS 18:30 to PDX 23:08, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.