tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Tucson → San Francisco via Phoenix: arrives on time 39%

  1. 18:30 TUS → 19:29 PHX
    AA 4126 · American, flown by Envoy · 59m · 88% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 54m layover in Phoenix (PHX) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:23 PHX → 22:23 SFO
    AA 686 · American · 2h 00m · 46% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 3h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 38 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection84%The first flight arrived more than 9 minutes late on 16% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 54m layover.
Arrives on time39%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (84%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (46%).
Total trip3h 53mTUS 18:30 to SFO 22:23, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.