tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Dallas-Fort Worth via Washington: arrives on time 49%

  1. 13:59 TVC → 15:59 DCA
    AA 4138 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 00m · 73% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 12m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:11 DCA → 19:41 DFW
    AA 1414 · American · 3h 30m · 65% on time, 5.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 42m, scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Traverse City). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection84%The first flight arrived more than 27 minutes late on 16% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 12m layover.
Arrives on time49%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (84%) × second flight not cancelled (5.3% are) and within 15 minutes (65%).
Total trip6h 42mTVC 13:59 to DFW 19:41, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.