tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Boston via Washington: arrives on time 30%

  1. 13:59 TVC → 15:59 DCA
    AA 4138 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 00m · 73% on time, 4.2% cancelled
  2. 1h 01m layover in Washington (DCA) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:00 DCA → 18:47 BOS
    AA 3207 · American · 1h 47m · 43% on time, 2.1% cancelled

Total trip 4h 48m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection74%The first flight arrived more than 16 minutes late on 26% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 01m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (4.2% are) × connection made (74%) × second flight not cancelled (2.1% are) and within 15 minutes (43%).
Total trip4h 48mTVC 13:59 to BOS 18:47, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.