tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Hebron → Newark via Chicago: arrives on time 29%

  1. 16:11 CVG → 16:45 ORD
    AA 4143 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 34m · 73% on time, 4.3% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 17:36 ORD → 21:00 EWR
    AA 3253 · American · 2h 24m · 47% on time, 6.8% cancelled

Total trip 4h 49m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time29%First flight not cancelled (4.3% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (6.8% are) and within 15 minutes (47%).
Total trip4h 49mCVG 16:11 to EWR 21:00, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.