tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Phoenix via Chicago: arrives on time 24%

  1. 20:14 STL → 21:45 ORD
    AA 4144 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 37m · 59% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 49m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:34 ORD → 00:14 PHX +1 day
    AA 2786 · American · 3h 39m · 55% on time, 11.1% cancelled

Total trip 5h 59m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 2 h behind St Louis). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection54%The first flight arrived more than 4 minutes late on 46% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 49m layover.
Arrives on time24%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (54%) × second flight not cancelled (11.1% are) and within 15 minutes (55%).
Total trip5h 59mSTL 20:14 to PHX 00:14, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.