tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

St Louis → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 31%

  1. 20:14 STL → 21:45 ORD
    AA 4144 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 37m · 59% on time, 8.3% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:36 ORD → 00:22 MSP +1 day
    AA 4472 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 46m · 73% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 4h 08m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection55%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 45% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time31%First flight not cancelled (8.3% are) × connection made (55%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip4h 08mSTL 20:14 to MSP 00:22, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.