tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Phoenix via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 38%

  1. 18:02 SDF → 19:28 DFW
    AA 4152 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 24m · 69% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 1h 02m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:30 DFW → 21:02 PHX
    AA 1133 · American · 2h 32m · 64% on time, 12.7% cancelled

Total trip 6h 00m, scheduled departure to arrival (Phoenix is 3 h behind Louisville). Times are local. Both flew on 55 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection69%The first flight arrived more than 17 minutes late on 31% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 02m layover.
Arrives on time38%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (69%) × second flight not cancelled (12.7% are) and within 15 minutes (64%).
Total trip6h 00mSDF 18:02 to PHX 21:02, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.