tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Louisville → Philadelphia via Dallas-Fort Worth: arrives on time 30%

  1. 18:02 SDF → 19:28 DFW
    AA 4152 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 24m · 69% on time, 1.4% cancelled
  2. 51m layover in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 20:19 DFW → 00:35 PHL +1 day
    AA 2542 · American · 3h 16m · 56% on time, 4.8% cancelled

Total trip 6h 33m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 54 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection57%The first flight arrived more than 6 minutes late on 43% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 51m layover.
Arrives on time30%First flight not cancelled (1.4% are) × connection made (57%) × second flight not cancelled (4.8% are) and within 15 minutes (56%).
Total trip6h 33mSDF 18:02 to PHL 00:35, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.