tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Traverse City via Chicago: arrives on time 68%

  1. 10:31 MSP → 12:16 ORD
    AA 4162 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 45m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 1h 39m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 13:55 ORD → 16:17 TVC
    AA 3772 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 22m · 76% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 4h 46m, scheduled departure to arrival (Traverse City is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 22 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection93%The first flight arrived more than 54 minutes late on 7% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 39m layover.
Arrives on time68%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (93%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip4h 46mMSP 10:31 to TVC 16:17, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.