tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Raleigh/Durham via Chicago: arrives on time 75%

  1. 10:31 MSP → 12:16 ORD
    AA 4162 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 45m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 43m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 15:59 ORD → 19:23 RDU
    AA 4518 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 24m · 82% on time, 6.9% cancelled

Total trip 7h 52m, scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 178 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 43m layover.
Arrives on time75%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (6.9% are) and within 15 minutes (82%).
Total trip7h 52mMSP 10:31 to RDU 19:23, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.