tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Minneapolis → Louisville via Chicago: arrives on time 80%

  1. 10:31 MSP → 12:16 ORD
    AA 4162 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 45m · 89% on time, 0.0% cancelled
  2. 3h 46m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 16:02 ORD → 18:36 SDF
    AA 4668 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 36m · 86% on time, 5.7% cancelled

Total trip 7h 07m, scheduled departure to arrival (Louisville is 1 h ahead of Minneapolis). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection98%The first flight arrived more than 181 minutes late on 2% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 3h 46m layover.
Arrives on time80%First flight not cancelled (0.0% are) × connection made (98%) × second flight not cancelled (5.7% are) and within 15 minutes (86%).
Total trip7h 07mMSP 10:31 to SDF 18:36, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.