tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Chicago → Rapid City via Minneapolis: arrives on time 82%

  1. 08:22 ORD → 10:06 MSP
    AA 4162 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 46m · 91% on time, 1.5% cancelled
  2. 3h 25m layover in Minneapolis (MSP) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 13:31 MSP → 14:19 RAP
    DL 3967 · Delta, flown by SkyWest · 1h 48m · 83% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 57m, scheduled departure to arrival (Rapid City is 1 h behind Chicago). Times are local. Both flew on 48 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection100%The first flight arrived more than 115 minutes late on 0% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 25m layover.
Arrives on time82%First flight not cancelled (1.5% are) × connection made (100%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (83%).
Total trip6h 57mORD 08:22 to RAP 14:19, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.