tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Houston via Chicago: arrives on time 33%

  1. 18:29 ORF → 20:15 ORD
    AA 4164 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 46m · 72% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 52m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:07 ORD → 23:51 IAH
    AA 3144 · American · 2h 44m · 53% on time, 5.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 22m, scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 1 h behind Norfolk). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection70%The first flight arrived more than 7 minutes late on 30% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 52m layover.
Arrives on time33%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (70%) × second flight not cancelled (5.5% are) and within 15 minutes (53%).
Total trip6h 22mORF 18:29 to IAH 23:51, layover included

Tight connection: often missed. The first flight is late enough to miss it on more than 1 day in 4.

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.