tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 56%

  1. 18:29 ORF → 20:15 ORD
    AA 4164 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 46m · 72% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 2h 21m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 22:36 ORD → 00:22 MSP +1 day
    AA 4472 · American, flown by Republic · 1h 46m · 73% on time, 14.3% cancelled

Total trip 6h 53m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Norfolk). Times are local. Both flew on 56 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 96 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 2h 21m layover.
Arrives on time56%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (14.3% are) and within 15 minutes (73%).
Total trip6h 53mORF 18:29 to MSP 00:22, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.