tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Norfolk → Baltimore via Chicago: arrives on time 54%

  1. 18:29 ORF → 20:15 ORD
    AA 4164 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 46m · 72% on time, 5.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 10m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 21:25 ORD → 00:33 BWI +1 day
    AA 4663 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 08m · 79% on time, 4.5% cancelled

Total trip 6h 04m, scheduled departure to arrival. Times are local. Both flew on 30 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection76%The first flight arrived more than 25 minutes late on 24% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 10m layover.
Arrives on time54%First flight not cancelled (5.6% are) × connection made (76%) × second flight not cancelled (4.5% are) and within 15 minutes (79%).
Total trip6h 04mORF 18:29 to BWI 00:33, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.