tailodds FORECAST
Connection · one ticket · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Birmingham → Washington via Chicago: arrives on time 74%

  1. 06:22 BHM → 08:49 ORD
    AA 4181 · American, flown by Envoy · 2h 27m · 86% on time, 2.6% cancelled
  2. 1h 56m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 45 min minimum on one ticket
  3. 10:45 ORD → 13:59 DCA
    AA 4809 · American, flown by Republic · 2h 14m · 80% on time, 0.0% cancelled

Total trip 6h 37m, scheduled departure to arrival (Washington is 1 h ahead of Birmingham). Times are local. Both flew on 25 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection95%The first flight arrived more than 71 minutes late on 5% of the days it flew: too late for the 45-minute minimum connection on a 1h 56m layover.
Arrives on time74%First flight not cancelled (2.6% are) × connection made (95%) × second flight not cancelled (0.0% are) and within 15 minutes (80%).
Total trip6h 37mBHM 06:22 to DCA 13:59, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.