tailodds FORECAST
Connection · two tickets · schedule Jun 6 – Jul 31, 2026 · records Aug 2025 – Jul 2026

Traverse City → Minneapolis via Chicago: arrives on time 65%

  1. 12:27 TVC → 12:58 ORD
    AA 4190 · American, flown by Envoy · 1h 31m · 90% on time, 2.8% cancelled
  2. 3h 05m layover in Chicago (ORD) · 90 min minimum on separate tickets
  3. 16:03 ORD → 17:53 MSP
    UA 5871 · United, flown by SkyWest · 1h 50m · 76% on time, 8.1% cancelled

Total trip 6h 26m, scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 1 h behind Traverse City). Times are local. Both flew on 37 of the last 56 days.

Makes the connection96%The first flight arrived more than 95 minutes late on 4% of the days it flew: too late for the 90-minute minimum connection on a 3h 05m layover.
Arrives on time65%First flight not cancelled (2.8% are) × connection made (96%) × second flight not cancelled (8.1% are) and within 15 minutes (76%).
Total trip6h 26mTVC 12:27 to MSP 17:53, layover included

Not yet counted: the second flight also leaving late (which helps), gate-to-gate distance at the hub, and rebooking after a missed connection.